Forecast Final Account Maintenance
Risk mitigationOngoingFor Subcontractors & Main Contractors
I keep a running forecast of where the account actually lands, updated monthly so decisions on the job are made against the destination rather than the month. Contract sum, variations priced and pending, claims exposure, contra risk, retention timing, one number you can plan against.
The problem
Most jobs are steered by where the account is this month, but the real decisions, whether to push a claim, accept a settlement or fund the next job, are about where it will finish. So the destination is guessed, and the guess is optimistic: variations get instructed but not priced, contras get threatened but not carried, claim exposure sits in someone's memory. The forecast, if it exists, reads like the contract sum for months then lurches, and a number with no history behind it is one the other side treats with suspicion.
The solution
I build and maintain one running forecast of the final account: the contract sum, variations agreed and pending priced at what you honestly expect to recover, claim exposure carried openly, contra risk assessed, and retention timed to when it truly releases. Reviewed every month, a number moves only when a reason moves with it, so it is a running record rather than a figure that drifts. When it keeps landing low, I name the upstream cause, variations going unpriced or applications going in thin. It is the destination, kept open for you to plan against.
What you receive
You always know where the account will land, not just where it sits this month: contract sum, variations honestly priced, the arguments still to come carried openly, retention timed properly. Decisions are made against that destination, so you push the right claims, accept only the settlements worth accepting, and fund the next job on real footing. And because the forecast moved a little each month with a reason attached, the final account opens from an evidenced position.
The Handover Pack accompanies the work with its dates and sources, likely outcomes and responses, scope boundaries and ready-to-send correspondence where needed.
Turnaround: five working days per cycle.
The working days start when the agreed scope and required inputs are available. Optional items do not hold the start unless the agreed scope says otherwise.
How it works
You tell me about the job and how it will finish
One call on the contract, the variations in flight and the arguments you can already see coming. The first conversation is free and commits you to nothing.
You send me the contract, the variation account and the risk position
The list below lets the first forecast be built from the real contract sum, every variation to date and the claims and contras honestly carried.
- A
Variation register with status
EssentialWithout it: There is nothing to place in the unagreed columns, so the range around the forecast cannot be built and movement since last period cannot be tracked.
Where to find it: The variation register, the instruction file and the surveyor's working notes.
Why I need it: The largest moving part of the account
- B
The claims position
ImportantWithout it: The forecast and its range leave out claims altogether, not because they are worth nothing, but because nothing has been said about them.
Where to find it: The correspondence file, the claim working papers and the site's own records of contra events.
Why I need it: What is in dispute and what is not
- C
Agreed and disputed items
EssentialWithout it: There is no way to tell what is fixed from what is still moving, so the forecast base and the unagreed range cannot be separated at all.
Where to find it: Whatever shows agreement in writing: a certificate, a signed schedule or an email accepting a value. Anything without that paper trail is treated as disputed.
Why I need it: The distinction that decides the forecast
- D
Contract sum
EssentialWithout it: The forecast has no fixed starting point to move from, so nothing else in it can be built.
Where to find it: The commercial folder or the order confirmation.
Why I need it: The base the forecast moves from
- E
Risk register or allowances
OptionalWithout it: The forecast simply does not show what is provided for but unspent; nothing else changes.
Where to find it: Your risk register, or however you track provisional allowances not yet spent, if you keep one.
Why I need it: What is provided for but not yet spent
Copies are fine. Send what you have and I'll tell you what's missing. Download the client request PDF or editable Word version to pass to whoever holds the files.
- A
I build the forecast to the destination
Contract sum, variations agreed and pending at what you expect to recover, claim exposure and contra risk carried, retention timed to its true triggers, on one page you hold too.
Claims Carried on Evidence
A claim enters the forecast only at a value whose basis is in writing on the file; anything not yet evidenced is carried at nil with the reason stated.
I review it every month and move numbers only with reasons
Each change tied to a real cause, a variation agreed, a contra accepted, a claim firmed up, so the forecast is a running record rather than a figure that drifts.
Reconciled Both Ways
Each month's forecast is reconciled to the last certificate and to the cost report, so the destination, the margin and the cash always tell one story.
I name the upstream cause when the forecast keeps landing low
Where the destination keeps falling, I say plainly whether variations are going unpriced or applications thin, so the fix goes upstream rather than being absorbed silently.
You make the big calls against the destination
Whether to push a claim, accept a settlement or fund the next job, all decided against where the account is going to finish rather than where this month happens to leave it.
I keep the destination in view all the way in
Between projects the service pauses rather than cancels: nothing is re-onboarded, the file and the diary stay warm, and it resumes the day the next project starts.
Free Service Pack
A step-by-step Handbook, with the templates and working documents you need to carry out the work it covers yourself. You supply your own project information and records.
Follow the Handbook's scope and stopping points, and obtain independent advice where required. The pack is not project-specific advice or independent sign-off.
Tips that raise your odds of success
Questions I get asked often
This service forecasts where the account lands; the margin along the way is reconciled by CVR Production & Maintenance and the cash by Cashflow Forecasting Against Programme. The destination is only as honest as the variations feeding it, priced by Variation Pricing; handing the account itself over, run live with its own forecast and negotiated to signature, is Final Account Assembly.