There's no contingency in the budget

A budget with no contingency line is a forecast that nothing will go wrong, made about a construction site. The first ground surprise, weather week or failed delivery has nowhere to land except margin, and because it was never provided for, it arrives as a crisis instead of a drawdown - and the second event compounds the first.

Contingency is not padding; it is a priced list. Name the risks, put a value and a likelihood against each, carry the total visibly, and draw it down against events as they happen - so the directors watch risk being consumed while there is time to react, instead of discovering at the end that margin quietly paid for all of it. In the cashflow it matters twice over: risk events cost cash on dates, and a forecast that ignores them is optimistic in exactly the month it can least afford to be.